Let me guess
The hidden cost of unpredictable leadership
Many years ago, I read a wonderful book called Opening Skinner’s Box, in which the writer, Lauren Slater, dives deep into ten psychological experiments of the twentieth century and analyses what they tell us about humanity. She starts with the eponymous Skinner and his experiments in operant conditioning - getting an animal to develop a behaviour through cause and effect (in this case, getting a rat to press a button to get a sugar cube). The thing that really struck me from this chapter is what happened to the rat when rewards were intermittent - i.e. sometimes pressing the button gave them a sugar cube and sometimes it didn’t, with no discernable pattern. In short, the rats addictively pressed the button - the fact that they didn’t know whether they were going to get the reward or not drove them slightly crazy and kept them coming back to see whether this time would be the time that they’d get that sweet sugary hit.
Lauren Slater points out that this finding reveals a lot about human psychology, and, if we start looking, we can see other examples around us where uncertainty of outcome keeps us coming back for more. Gambling is the most obvious example, but you can also see it in toxic or abusive relationships - the partner that’s terrible to you most of the time but every now and again makes you feel incredible, and that keeps you coming back in case next time is the time that provides you with one of those golden moments.
This description might also ring a bell to some of us in a workplace context. I can think of a few people I know who have worked with bosses who bring this unpredictable behaviour to work - one day, you can do no wrong, the next you’re getting the silent treatment, the next you’re being humiliated in front of your colleagues for a relatively minor error. The fact that the negative experiences are intermingled, seemingly randomly, with the positive ones can keep you locked into an unhealthy pattern - you think that if you just work hard enough, if you just check and double check and triple check everything so there are never any mistakes, you’ll be able to bask in the glow of your bosses’ hard won approval.
And what’s worse is that, somehow, these people dress this up as ‘high standards’. The reason you’re getting yelled at or ignored isn’t because they’re a bully, it’s because you’re underperforming and letting everyone down. The randomness of their censure or approval makes you shift responsibility onto yourself, desperately looking for a pattern to make sense of when your reward might come. Randomness does not sit comfortably with us, so if we can’t find a logical reason to explain our bosses’ behaviour, it’s an easy leap to assume that it’s us that’s the problem.
What I’ve described above is a fairly extreme - if, sadly, not uncommon - example, but there are milder versions of this that might spark recognition, even, potentially, in our own leadership practice. The subtler version is the boss who brings their emotions to work in an unpredictable way; one day they’re the life and soul of the party, the next they’re in a corner with their head in their heads sighing in a way that makes it obvious that all is not well. One day you get a perky ‘good morning’ and the next, a barely perceptible nod of the head. I’ve worked in places where the team wonders each day which version of their leader they’re going to get and then - and this is the crucial bit - they act accordingly. An upbeat greeting might mean that today’s the day to submit your request for that two week holiday in the summer; a glum entrance results in the conversation about the budget overspend being kicked down the road for another day or two until the mood’s a bit lighter. Once again, it’s the team that is changing its actions and shaping its behaviour around the energy their leader is bringing in.
The opposite of this is predictability: the person who comes in every day as broadly the same version of themselves, whose values and expectations are consistent and clearly understood, who is happy to talk about successes, requests or challenges whenever they arise, rather than when they’re in the right mood. Predictability is a key building block of trust and this, in turn, removes a layer of emotional labour from the team that surrounds the leader - they no longer have to second guess, attempt to make sense of their bosses’ erratic patterns, wonder whether today’s the day to broach that difficult conversation or whether that would be better done next week. They are free to do their best work in the knowledge that they have a reliable, consistent and supportive leader who wants them to succeed.
By releasing our teams from the emotional labour of navigating an uncertain environment, it falls to us to ensure that the leadership presence we bring to work every day is consistent and meets the high standards that we set for ourselves. This task is not to be underestimated. There are days when we’re tired, days when we’re angry, days when we’re grieving or menstrual or worried about our aging parents, days when we’re weighed down by a rejected funding application, a safeguarding incident, a show that’s not selling. Part of the work of the leader, therefore, is to do something with these emotions that doesn’t involve taking them out on their staff.
What this doesn’t mean is that you should attempt to be a robot - instead, you can consider the difference between describing and emotion and demonstrating it. You can indicate to your staff that you’re struggling today by simply saying ‘I’m struggling today’ rather than sitting at your desk and sighing. You can respond to a request to discuss the two week holiday that one of your team wants to take by saying ‘I’m a bit preoccupied with this safeguarding incident today - could we find a time to talk about it tomorrow?’ These responses acknowledge and respect the reality of what you might be dealing with but still ensures that your team doesn’t need to second guess what your response might be - they simply ask and get an honest answer.
This is why, when people talk about the importance of self-care, you shouldn’t simply roll your eyes and look away. Giving yourself the time and space to process your emotions, to think through challenges, to be ready to bring the best version of yourself to work - that’s only possible if you have built in mechanisms to your life that allow you regulate your emotions and keep things in perspective. Consistency is a leadership superpower - we shouldn’t underestimate the work that it takes, but the trust and capability that it can build within a team makes it absolutely worth it.